Quantifying the economic value of non-communicable disease and injury mortality: regional estimates by death cause, 2000-2050

Stéphane Verguet, Sarah Bolongaita, Angela Y. Chang, Diego S. Cardoso, and Gretchen A. Stevens

Abstract

Background: With ageing, national health systems must set difficult priorities toward improving the healthy longevity of their populations. We quantified avoidable mortality from major non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and injuries to which we assigned an economic value by cause of death for the time period 2000-2050.

Methods: We used data from WHO’s Global Health Estimates for the years 2000-2019 for 31 causes of death including major NCDs and injuries, the 2022 World Population Prospects population estimates and the World Bank’s World Development Indicators. We quantified avoidable mortality, that is the difference between lowest-achieved mortality frontiers (the 10th percentile of age-specific mortality rates) and projected mortality trajectories, for each cause of death, for 2000-2050 and six large world regions (China, India, High-income, Eurasia & the Mediterranean, Latin America & the Caribbean, sub-Saharan Africa). We then applied value of a statistical life approaches to assign economic values to these estimates of avoidable mortality.

Findings: The economic implications of controlling NCDs and injuries would be substantial, particularly for cardiovascular diseases (CVD), cancers, and injuries, with variations depending on the region and sex. The economic value associated with CVD avoidable mortality would be universally large for both females and males, with values spanning 2-8% of annual income (in the year 2019). For cancers, it would be large (4 to 7% of annual income) (for both males and females) in High-Income and China; and, for injuries, it would be substantial for males in Latin America & the Caribbean (5%, intentional injuries) and males in sub-Saharan Africa (5%, unintentional injuries).

Interpretation: We provide a systematic monetary assessment of the economic value associated with elevated NCD and injury mortality, globally and regionally, and derive an economic metric directly comparable to annual incomes (e.g., gross national income), which enable both health sector and multisectoral priority setting.

Funding: The World Bank.